BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 12 DRAFKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Greenville, South Carolina. DraftKings has some adequate contests for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also possess a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 3rd chair this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at that $30k prize, then I will likely take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Main Event STACK — Renato Moicano and Chan Sung Jung
For me personally, this is an easy pile in cash week. I think we readily have a floor of 100 with Renato Moicano and The Korean Zombie with upside of ~150. Additionally, it assures us the winner. As I have mentioned several times in the past, we do not need 6 wins in cash games, so play those kind of games safer and all you’ve got to do is conquer half the area. Normally 4 wins or 400+ points is great enough to cash in the majority of cash games. Even if you have a solid lean on this fight I recommend stacking.
GPP drama of this week — Jairzinho Rozenstruik — $9,000
Rozenstruik gets the highest ITD lineup on the card at -140 and he could easily hit 100+ DK points from getting that in around 1. The worry here would be him on his back in around 1 and scoring zero points during that and then going out and getting a KO in round 2. Or no KO in any way. Both of those would take him off the perfect lineup so we want this fight to keep standing and ideally an early KO. I believe that’s extremely possible and he will be a heart GPP play of mine this week. He isn’t the greatest cash game play however because he could be put on his back and be stuck there and perhaps even lose the battle like that. I am OK with him cash, but I won’t be making a priority like I’m being obese in GPPs.
Underdog drama of this week — Anderson Dos Santos — $7,900
This gambling line is about pickem’ having a slight lean towards Dos Santos. But, Ewell is your favorite on DraftKings and is $400 greater than ADS. Ewell is likewise the striker so that he to score tremendously he’s likely going to want a complete finish. His weakness is Anderson Dos Santos’ strength however. Ewell has difficulty staying off his spine and if ADS can place him there he could possibly submit him. He could rack up numerous takedowns for a high decision rating. I like the value we’re getting on him at $7.9k and I like that he should be seeking to grapple in this particular fight. That’s the reason why I needed to select him as my puppy of this week.
Fade of the week — Syuri Kondo $8,000
There are no real easy fades this week. I do have a full fade on Kondo however because she looks to be only a striker and I believe Ashely Yoder’s best path to victory is by way of grappling. If Kondo is not at a striking match for 15-minutes I don’t see the way she scores tremendously unless she gets a finish. I really don’t believe she’s KO power, therefore I believe it’s purely the substantial strikes and the win bonus which we’d be relying here. I’d rather take a fighter with more of a chance to complete or who is more likely to grapple. That’s why Kondo is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 81-51 to get +251.89un (+$25,189) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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